Friday 30 September 2011

Ireland v. Italy: PreJudgement



Despite beating Australia in the biggest Rugby World Cup result in Irish history, the men in green still have it all to do against Italy in their final game in Group C this weekend.

Two weeks on from that most incredible of matches, Ireland know that they face a winner-take-all match against Six Nations whipping boys Italy to qualify for the quarter-finals. Optimism is high in the Irish camp after they followed up the Australian scalp with a 50-point win over Russia last week, but they will be wary of an Italian team that nearly turned them over in Rome this year.
That match went down to the wire, with only a late Ronan O'Gara drop goal saving Irish blushes. Italy took a step up this year in the Six Nations, when they followed their solid performances against Ireland and Wales with a thrilling win over France. They have shown that they belong at the World Cup with good wins over Russia and the USA, and will fancy their chances of battling past Ireland to a maiden quarter-final berth.

The most interesting selection is that of the Irish half-backs. Declan Kidney has opted to give 22-year old scrum-half Conor Murray only his 2nd test start, and has paired him alongside Munster comrade Ronan O'Gara. O'Gara has given some glittering performances so far, and it seems that the pressure he has exerted on Johnny Sexton has paid off. He wants that 10 jersey for his final World Cup, and both his game management and goal-kicking have been supreme so far. Another good performance will give Kidney serious issues over who gets the nod for the quarter-final. Sexton came into this World Cup as the first choice, but O'Gara is now firmly the man in possession.


Key Clash

As ever, the biggest threat from Italy will come from the pack. Their backs have played well throughout the tournament, but it is those eight men who need to make an impression early on in the scrum. Led by captain Sergio Parisse, they were in control against a tough challenge from the USA pack, and will want to put pressure on Ireland's front row straightaway.
The most interesting battle will be between Martin Castrogiovanni and Cian Healy. Whether for Leicester Tigers or Italy, Castrogiovanni is always one of Italy's most important players, and Cian Healy will have his work cut out against one of the best scrummagers in the world. Healy has played extremely well so far, both in the scrum and with ball in hand, but early in his career was known to give away penalties when pressurized at the scrum. The Irish front row has been highlighted as a potential area of weakness, with no replacements of any real quality should a player go down injured, but so far Healy, Best and Ross have done a stirling job.
Healy needs to show patience and maturity - he is one of the new breed of Irish players, and I would back him to have another strong match against the stern Italian test.


Player to Watch

Whenever Italy play, so much is expected of their dynamic captain Sergio Parisse. Long seen as one of the best No. 8s in world rugby, he will be up against the man who has taken on that mantle in Jamie Heaslip. Parisse seems to be everywhere for Italy - powering the scrum from behind, making breaks through defences, and always inspiring and encouraging his team on to greater heights. He will desperately want to be the man who leads Italy to their first World Cup knockout match, and will fire his players up for the encounter like never before.

A number of Irish player know that this is their last World Cup, and want to make it a memorable swansong. No one wants it more than Brian O'Driscoll. Already assured of his place in Irish sporting history, the Leinster 13 has led his team with the passion and desire he has shown ever since pulling on that green jersey in 1999. Whenever Ireland are in trouble, it always seems to be O'Driscoll who makes that break, who makes that try-saving tackle. The senior men are going to be crucial in this bruising encounter, and O'Driscoll, O'Connell and O'Gara need to inspire the team from the start.


Verdict

Italy have shown that they belong in the Six Nations and the World Cup this year, and can now count themselves as a top-10 team in world rugby. They will be sure to give the Irish a stern test, particularly in the scrum and at the breakdown. However, the Irish forwards have excelled so far, and with a back line that oozes class, they should have too much for the Italians.


PreJudgement: Ireland by 16

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