After four warm-up losses to northern hemisphere teams and a scratchy win over the USA, Ireland are ready to face their biggest test so far in this 2011 World Cup. The key to avoiding New Zealand and South Africa until the final, this match has long been earmarked as the crucial fixture in Pool C. Australia go in as undoubted favorites, but with Ireland almost at full-strength, and with several players without World Cup heartache on their resumé, the men in green will fancy their chances of causing the first major upset of the tournament.
The Irish camp was hit by bad news midweek when first-choice hooker Jerry Flannery was ruled out of the remainder of the World Cup after tearing a calf muscle. Flannery never looked likely to make it through without an injury, but to lose him before the big game is a major blow. Rory Best is a decent player to step into his shoes, but there will be extra pressure on the Irish line-out to perform.
Australia had their own injury problems with star winger Digby Ioane fracturing a finger in training - he showed flashes of his brilliance against Italy, and while the management hope to have him back should Australia reach the semi-finals, he will be a loss until then. That said, Australia are not short of talent in the backs division, and it means a straight swap in for James O'Connor, while Drew Mitchell earns a place on the bench.
Key Clashes
Much of the talk in the build-up has revolved around the back rows of both teams. Even with David Wallace injured, Ireland can host the best back row combination in the northern hemisphere, with Stephen Ferris and Sean O'Brien at 6 and 7, and the immense Jamie Heaslip at No. 8. Arguably wasted at 7, Sean "The Tullow Tank" O'Brien was European Player of the year in 2011, relentlessly charging through defenses up and down the continent, and helping bring Leinster to a Heineken Cup triumph. He puts in hits as big as any, and seeing him go up against former Leinster man Rocky Elsom should be entertaining. Heaslip is one of Ireland's key leaders on the pitch, and he will be looking to boss the Australian scrum from the off.
Alongside Elsom, Australia play the evergreen Radike Samo, and many pundits 2010 World Player of the Year in David Pocock. No other player seems to effect as many turnovers as Pocock, and his powerful bursts through the line have wreaked havoc in Super Rugby this year.
Each team faces a world-class No. 7 with game-changing ability, and it will be fascinating to see who comes out on top.
The other key battle is, as usual, that of the fly-halves. Quade Cooper is billed by many as the man to take on Dan Carter's mantle as first-choice 10 in the world. He was the stand-out performer for the Reds in their title run this year, and his slick play with Will Genia could rip Ireland apart. Ireland put their faith in Jonathan Sexton, who has shown himself to be a nerveless kicker for Leinster, as well as a key part of that star back line. Sexton undoubtedly has the defensive edge on Cooper, who has a tendency to hide away on occasion, and the Irishman will be looking to put in some big hits early.
Player to Watch?
For 40 minutes, Australia found it tough against Italy. Then, James O'Connor came on. The wonder kid injected a new imagination and pace into the performance, and all is forgiven for his pre-tournament antics. Starting on the wing tomorrow, and most likely taking the goal-kicking responsibilities, O'Connor has the ability to rip through the Irish defence, and is unafraid to put in big tackles on his own line. With a name like that, Declan Kidney must be searching frantically for some ancestry to effect a late switch, but failing that, Keith Earls will have a lot to do on his wing tomorrow.
For Ireland, it has to be that man. He looked tired against Italy, but Brian O'Driscoll never backs off a challenge, and you can bet your mortgage he'll put everything into one of the biggest matches of his glittering career. With the ability to produce a break from nowhere, he will be a key leader in an Irish back line that made dozens of sloppy errors in the curtain-raiser.
Verdict
On their day, Ireland have the ability to beat Australia, but putting it into practice is another matter. Australia have the better back line, while Ireland would expect to win the forwards battle. If they can do that, and avoid giving away penalties at the breakdown, they should exert early pressure on the Wallabies. However, I don't see that difference in the forwards as being enough to make up for the gulf in class in the backs. The Australian back 3 are devastating, and it should prove to be the difference in a cracker of a match.
PreJudgement: Australia by 9
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