Heineken Cup Final PreJudgement

Hugh O'Connor has done it again. Another fantastic PreJudgement for this years Heineken Cup Final. 

Enjoy,

Leinster v Northampton Saints (Millennium Stadium)

It's all down to this. The two best teams in Europe this year face off for the biggest title in club rugby.

Injuries have been the talking-point of the week, with Northampton losing Aviva Premiership Player of the Year Tom Wood from the side of the scrum, while Leinster talisman Brian O’Driscoll faced a race against time to prove his fitness for Saturday evening. Unsurprisingly, O’Driscoll was named in the starting XV – let’s face it, he’s taken more knocks than anyone in his glittering career, and he’s played through most of them. Declan Kidney may be slightly nervous given the World Cup to come, but as far as Leinster are concerned this is the grand finale, and there was no way he was going to miss it.

Richardt Strauss, hooker and key man for Leinster tomorrow, has also shrugged off a hip injury that he picked up in a bruising encounter with Ulster last week which, for me, is of far greater importance than O’Driscoll.

Key Clashes

The scrum. The scrum, the scrum, the scrum. In their two knock-out matches so far, the Saints have dominated up front, and used this as the platform for their victories. Leinster were destroyed by Toulouse up front in last year’s semi-final, but put together a couple of huge shoves in the second half this year which proved decisive. Who holds the advantage?

The front row is a massive clash. Dylan Hartley, captain and hooker, leads Northampton from the front and is more than ably supported by props Mujati and Tonga’huia. The importance of Strauss’s fitness cannot be overstated – he must lead Leinster from the front, and alongside Mike Ross and Cian Healy Leinster don’t have a bad front three themselves. The clash of the man-mountains in Tonga’huia and Ross should be fascinating. The worry I would have for Leinster is Cian Healy – brilliant in the loose, he has been known to leak penalties in the scrum, and Mujati will be looking to squeeze him from the start. Whoever wins this early battle will be a key signal as to the shape of the game to come, and I’d give the Saints a marginal advantage from the off.

The rest of the pack is just as important. Leinster’s back three have been fantastic all season, with Sean O’Brien blossoming into one of the finest players in Ireland. Jamie Heaslip has continued his dominance at number 8, and Kevin McLaughlin has been given the nod to continue at blindside. His physicality at the breakdown and disruption at the line-out is a key strength for Leinster. Wood is a major loss for the Saints, but it doesn’t change the fact that they still have a very strong pack. Courtney Lawes is one of the new generation of English wonderkids, and continues to shine for his club. Strong in the line-out and in the loose, particularly in a defensive role, his early performance could be a game-changer in terms of momentum.

While I’d lean towards the Saints as regards the front row, Leinster’s back three are so powerful that, in the absence of Tom Wood, I’m going to call the scrum as pretty much even. The first few will be key. Heaslip will be looking to win a shove against the scrum early, and when that man gets fired up you’d better watch out. Both sides will attack from the start – whoever gets that first breakthrough will make it count.

Number 10. Jonathan Sexton has been the best outhalf in Europe this season. His tactical play has been superb, giving Leinster position and strong defence, and he’s kicked close to 90% of his shots at goal so far. Steadiness is fast becoming a synonym.

On the other hand, you have Stephen Myler. He’s streaky as bacon, both in terms of set-piece and in-play. I’ve seen him miss six kicks in a row, and seen him kick everything under the sun. No one needs an early confidence boost like Myler. Leinster need to get to him early, put in some big hits and put pressure on his clearances. If you let him get into his stride he’s as dynamic as they come. Knock him off and Jim Mallinder will have to turn to Shane Geraghty sooner than he would have liked.

Leinster definitely have the advantage at number 10, but they must make it count early and get inside Myler’s head. That alone could win them the game.

Won And Lost?

The final sees two team with amazing attacking ability – Ashton and Foden on the one hand, O’Driscoll, Shane Horgan and Isa Nacewa on the other. What will be decisive, however, is the defence. The Saints defence has been good for the entirety of their European campaign, and held firm against serious Leciester pressure at the weekend before succumbing to Alesano Tuilagi in the end. Leinster, though, have been rock solid. They have had the best defence in Europe all year, and that is where they will win this match. Northampton can hammer away for the whole game, but Leinster can hold firm, particularly with O’Driscoll back in the side. Isa Nacewa is strong tracking back, and I can see Leinster holding out longer than the Saints. Ashton and Foden could break through at some point, and with James Downey and Bruce Reihana also in that back line they’re not short of talent, but Leinster know how to defend when their lives depend on it. They’ve had a tougher run to the final this year, and proven themselves against every opponent.

I think both teams will touch down tries; they both play an attractive game, but Leinister should be able to get past their opposition one time too many, particularly as players begin to tire.

A final factor? The bench. Northampton have a great starting 15, but after that, their resources just don’t match Leinster. Leinster have cover in the shape of Fergus McFadden, Shane Jennings, Isaac Boss and Heinke van der Merwe, all top-class players. It was arguably van der Merwe’s introduction that swung the semi-final against Toulouse on the hour-mark. As the battering continues, front rows are bound to tire, even Tonga’huia, and I reckon that Leinster just have a bit more in reserve.

PreJudgement: An absolute cracker of a match. I think this could be as fine a game of club rugby as you’ll see this year. Both teams have an incredible passion and desire, backed up by some fantastic talent, both young and old. In the end though, I think experience will tell, and the cannier and older team will come out on top.

Leinster by 6.