With my keen interest in all rugby I decided to get a more expert opinion in for these PreJudgements. I have asked Hugh O'Connor to be my guest blogger for the Heineken Cup games. Hugh is an Irishman living in Dublin with his finger on the pulse in a number of sporting fields. (Hugh's Blogs:
European Tour Golf ,
New York Cricket &
147 Break Snooker)
Here is his PreJudgement of the upcoming Semi Finals:
This weekend sees the final four teams hit the pitch in the Heineken Cup semi-finals, to decide who will face each other in Cardiff for the European crown.
The semi-final line-up is a perfect mix of experience, hunger, young talent and, perhaps most importantly, features teams from Ireland, England and France. It's been a lean couple of years for Welsh rugby and, based on this year's Heineken Cup, Wales will have their work cut out this autumn at the World Cup. Leinster are continuing their fine few seasons with a third consecutive semi-final berth, while the seemingly ever-present Toulouse survived a late fightback against Biarritz to book their place. Perpignan managed to see off Jonny Wilkinson's Toulon at home to set up an away fixture with Northampton, who managed to time their recovery from an appalling mid-season domestic slump to perfection, dominating Ulster to make the last four.
Leinster v. Toulouse
When you say the words "Heineken Cup", a few teams spring to mind. Leinster dealt with one of those in their quarter-final when they beat Leicester at home. Their semi-final opponents are only more so. Toulouse, winners last year, with four wins overall and a pair of runners-up finishes, are a team that always turn up for a European match. The instant the red and black hits the turf, you know you're in for something special. Leinster are out to avenge their semi-final defeat to Toulouse last year, and a 90% home crowd might be the perfect platform on which to build a victory.
Leinster have shown a certain guile this year hat we haven't seen before - you get the feeling that they now know they're one of those teams no one wants in a Heineken Cup game. They've played their opponents, the conditions, the crowds, and the referee well. At the Aviva stadium in Dublin they've been dominant, with their crushing Clermont Auvergne before Christmas being the best example.
Toulouse are a French team, and so it's tough to use their domestic form as a guide. So far, they've done what they've needed to do in the Heineken Cup. When they've had to go up a gear, they have. They'll need everything they have against Leinster on Saturday, and even though we haven't seen top form yet, you get the feeling that they've just been keeping it form for the last 11 months.
Key Clashes
For me, you've got to look at two areas. Both sides have a great back line, with the French in particular capable of weaving the most beautiful magic a rugby fan could wish to see. But the men in charge of the game will have to be on their mettle. Johnny Sexton has turned into one of the finest outhalves in world rugby - undoubtedly the best 10 in the Heineken Cup all season, he's added a nifty tactical game to his unerring place-kicking. He's shown his cool in Europe before, and Leinster need him to take control early on.
Up against Sexton is David Skrela, a man looking to end his Toulouse career on a high before moving to Clermont in the summer. Skrela has done it all before, most notably a year ago, and despite French coach Marc Lievremont's determination to keep him out of the national side has managed to continue to prove his worth in the Top 14. He's as canny as they come, and he's got a phenomenal backline to unleash when the kick doesn't seem the right option.
As with any tussle between 10s, it's crucial to take some early victories. Sexton will need to get on top of Skrela from the off, and I think the young Irishman will manage it. Dublin won't be rowdy when the Frenchman's taking his kicks, but he could still do with nailing a couple early - French teams are developing a habit of bottling it in Ireland.
The other battle is in the back rows. In Jamie Heaslip, Leinster have the best number 8 in the world - there I said it - and Sean O'Brien at 6 has been the story of the season. He's rampaged his way through any line he's come up against, carrying metre after metre, refusing to be put down, and scoring his share of tries from the back row. In pole position to take him down is French captain Thierry Dusatoir - for those of you who don't know him too well, my fantasy back row would be McCaw, Dusatoir, and Heaslip. He's magnificent for France and Toulouse, it feels like he's won about 7 Heineken Cups already, and he will be pumped.
As with the outhalves, it's crucial to win the first scrum. Leinster have scrummaged very well this year, but there have been times when Cian Healy (watch out for him this autumn) has given away penalty after penalty at the breakdown. He'll have French hooker William Servat not too far away from him at the crunch time, and no one's better than Servat at leading a scrum from the front.
PreJudgement
Sexton should be able to take control of the game early on, but it'll come down to the scrum. 1-5, Toulouse look the better outfit to me, so it's crucial that O'Brien and Heaslip try to dominate from early on. The French back row will be good for at least one try, but with Brian O'Driscoll in attack and defence I think Leinster will be able to handle them.
French teams away from home are notoriously difficult to predict, but I'm going to stick my neck out and say Leinster, backed up by 35,000 fans, can do the needful.
Leinster by 6.
Northampton Saints v. Perpignan
Many see this as the match that will decide who is the runner-up in this year's trophy and, while I agree, it could still be a fascinating battle. Straightaway, let's mention that fact about French teams away again - I think that could make the difference in this game, because otherwise it's pretty close to call. Add to that the fact that Perpignan have lost a couple of key forwards in Jerome Schuster and Nicolas Mas and they could be in for a tough battle.
Northampton started the season like a bullet train, blazing a trail to the top of the Premiership and winning all six of their European group games. Between Christmas and February they proceed to play some of the worst rugby of the last few years, but crucially timed it perfectly for the European break. Two weeks ago they showed that they're still up for the Heineken challenge with a well-deserved 10-point victory over Ulster.
Key Clashes
In the semi-final, Northampton absolutely bulldozed the Ulster scrum. With captain and hooker Dylan Hartley at the helm, and English starlet Courtney Lawes in the second row, they look a really class set piece. Hartley has blossomed as captain, showing a leadership and determination that had a lot to do with England's efforts at a Six Nations Grand Slam. With Perpignan missing Schuster in the front row, Hartley, and Soane Tonga'huia, the MASSIVE Samoan at his side, I can't see the French standing up to the English onslaught. The Saints' forwards also look better in the loose, with Tonga'uiha notching up his fair share of tries this season.
If Perpignan are to have a hope here, they need to attack Stephen Myler. The Northampton outhalf is a streaky player at the best of times, and the semi-final pressure could unnerve him. He was fantastic against Ulster in the quarters, but a few fluffed kicks early on and he can be a lost cause. Nicolas Laharrague won't be a name known to many outside of France, and it will be up to him to prove himself away from home. Get on Myler early in the game and the Saints are in trouble.
The final clash to look at is full back. For the Saints, Ben Foden has been his dynamic best this season, linking up with English team mate Christ Ashton at 14 to score heaps of tries. Good under a high ball, and with the spirit of Mils Muliaina in the counter-attack, Foden will look to go after his opposite number from the get-go. That's Jerome Porical, again, unknown south of the equator, but a dangerous player. Both love to run the ball, and it will be fascinating to see who can force the error first.
PreJudgement
With the class of Ashton and Foden making up for the inexperience in the Saints' back line, and the power of Hartley and Tonga'uiha up front, Northampton will look to control the game from the first kick. Perpignan have been known to crumble after an early setback, and even with players of the quality of David Marty in the backs, I can't see the French managing this one away from home. I see the Saints having a more comfortable time than most commentators seem to think.
Northampton by 11.
